Good morning from Hamilton. 🍁

900,000 Canadians are about to get a bill they're not ready for.

Not a layoff notice. Not a rent increase.

A mortgage renewal.

And this one hits different.

900,000 Canadian mortgages renew in 2025 and 2026.

Many locked in pandemic-era rates below 2 percent.

They're renewing into a world where rates sit at 3.69 to 4.5 percent.

That's a payment shock of 40-60% for some families.

And it's hitting in the exact provinces where employment is softest.

A $400,000 mortgage:

At 1.99%: $1,918/month

At 4.5%: $2,970/month

That's $1,052 more per month. $12,624 per year. For the same house.

WHERE THE RENEWALS CONCENTRATE

The 900,000 renewing mortgages aren't spread evenly.

Ontario: 300,000+ renewals

BC: 150,000+

Quebec: 150,000+

Alberta: 80,000+

These are Canadians who bought during the pandemic boom, locked in sub-2% rates, and are now facing maturity dates in 2025-2026.

THE MATH GETS BRUTAL FAST

A family in Toronto with a $500,000 mortgage locked at 1.75% in 2022.

Monthly payment: $2,375

Renewing today at 4.5%: $3,409

That's $1,034 more per month. $12,408 per year.

But here's what makes it worse: they're facing rate shock + job uncertainty simultaneously.

From Issue 3, Ontario unemployment is at 7.6%.

That family just watched 84,000 jobs disappear in their province in a single month.

Their odds of keeping that job just got worse.

Their odds of affording that $3,409 payment just got much worse.

THE DECISION TREE GETS GRIM

Homeowners facing renewal have three options. None are good.

Option 1: Pay it.

You cut discretionary spending. You hope you don't lose your job.

This works if you have job security + savings buffer.

In Ontario, 1 in 13 workers is unemployed. Your odds aren't great.

Option 2: Break the mortgage early.

Penalty: $15,000-$30,000+.

Then you refinance at the higher rate anyway.

You pay the penalty AND the higher payment.

Option 3: Sell.

Your house is worth less than when you bought it.

You owe $500K. Your house is worth $480K in today's market.

You sell at a loss and start renting.

THE FORCED SELLER WAVE

Not everyone can absorb a 40-60% payment shock.

Not everyone can break their mortgage without devastating penalties.

So some will sell.

And when they do, it won't be strategic. It'll be desperate.

They're listing in spring 2025 and 2026 because they have to.

Not because they want to.

And they'll take less than they'd like.

WHICH PROVINCES GET HIT HARDEST

Ontario: 300,000+ renewals

7.6% unemployment. $1.2-1.3K monthly ownership gap.

Worst combination: high renewal volume + softest employment + highest housing costs.

When forced sellers flood Toronto in spring 2025, they're bringing inventory to a market where buyers are already stretched.

Prices fall further.

BC: 150,000+ renewals

Construction, finance, and real estate sectors collapsing.

Many BC homeowners have equity buffer.

But recent buyers (maxed out debt) face the same forced seller trap as Ontario.

Alberta: 80,000+ renewals

Unemployment FALLING (6.3%). Jobs being added.

They're renewing into higher rates, yes.

But they're renewing with job security.

A $400K mortgage in Edmonton has much smaller payment shock than the same mortgage in Toronto.

Edmonton median: $470K. Toronto median: $750K.

Same rate shock. Different pain level.

The timing is brutal.

900,000 renewals hitting when employment is weakening and prices are falling simultaneously.

Ontario is ground zero.

Highest renewal volume. Highest unemployment. Highest housing costs.

If forced sales happen anywhere, they happen in Toronto first.

The cascade effect is real.

One forced seller at 480K becomes the comp.

Next seller marks down to 475K.

Next seller goes to 470K.

Prices don't fall smoothly. They cascade.

Alberta keeps the advantage.

Job security + lower home prices = manageable.

The Alberta advantage from Issue 3 just got stronger.

→ If you're renewing in 2025 or 2026 in Ontario/BC/Quebec:

Model your payment at 4.5% RIGHT NOW.

If you can't afford it, make decisions before the panic selling starts.

Options: refinance early (pay penalty, lock certainty), sell before the rush, or switch to variable rate.

Don't surprise yourself when the bank calls.

→ If you're renting and watching the market in Ontario/Toronto:

The forced seller wave is coming in spring 2025-2026.

That's 12+ months away.

Prices have further to fall. Unemployment still accelerating.

Patience has a data-backed case. You're not in a rush.

→ If you're a first-time buyer trying to get in:

Prices are falling (good). But rates are high (bad).

Monthly payments might actually be HIGHER than before.

Focus on Alberta or emerging secondary markets (Halifax, Montréal, Winnipeg).

Leave Toronto and Vancouver alone for 18 months.

→ If you're in Alberta and stable in your job:

You're in the best position in Canada right now.

Employment stable. Housing affordable. Rates painful but manageable.

If you're buying in Edmonton or Calgary, you're buying into stability while Eastern Canada destabilizes.

Mark Carney called it "big adjustments."

CMHC is monitoring it carefully.

Mortgage brokers are bracing for volume.

But most Canadian homeowners don't know it's coming.

They think their renewal is just a number the bank will tell them.

They don't realize it might force a life decision: stay or sell.

And they definitely don't realize 900,000 of them will be making that decision at the same time.

That's not a coincidence. That's a cascade.

The jobs losses are real (Issue 3).

The forced seller wave is coming (this issue).

And prices have further to fall.

The mortgage renewal crisis isn't a crisis yet.

But it will be.

See you next Tuesday. 🍁

Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (February 2026) → www150.statcan.gc.ca

Bank of Canada Policy Rates & Forecasts → www.bankofcanada.ca

CMHC Mortgage Stress Test Data → www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

CREA MLS Statistics (February 2026) → stats.crea.ca

This analysis connects mortgage renewal timing to employment weakness and housing price trends.

Renewal data sourced from CMHC mortgage insurance reports.

Payment shock estimates calculated using standard mortgage amortization formulas (25-year amortization).

Rate assumptions based on current Bank of Canada policy rates and economist forecasts from major Canadian banks (RBC, TD, CIBC).

Provincial employment data from Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (February 2026).

Housing price data from CREA MLS and local real estate boards.

All figures in CAD.

The Maple Metric publishes data analysis for informational and educational purposes only.

Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial, mortgage, or real estate advice.

Always consult a licensed mortgage broker or financial advisor before making renewal or housing decisions.

This newsletter is independently operated and not affiliated with any financial institution.

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You are reading The Maple Metric — weekly Canadian housing data for the people who actually have to live in it.

Published every Tuesday | Issue 4 | April 2026 Written and analyzed by Ish Sharma Ontario, Canada

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