Good morning from Hamilton. 🍁

Canada lost 84,000 jobs in February.

That is not a typo. Eighty four thousand.
In one month. The worst non-pandemic
job loss on record.

Your landlord noticed. Mortgage brokers
noticed. Real estate agents noticed.

Here is what it actually means for
your housing decision — and why the
answer is more nuanced than the
headline suggests.

Let's get into it.

84,000

Jobs lost in Canada in February 2026.
One month. The worst non-pandemic
result in recent memory.

Ontario led the decline at 7.6%
unemployment — the highest in
the country right now.

Alberta? Still falling at 6.3%.

Same country. Completely different
employment story.

Every 1% rise in unemployment
historically reduces Canadian home
prices by 2-3% over the following
12 months.

Ontario just hit 7.6%.
Do the math.

THE HOUSING CONNECTION

Here is the provincial breakdown that the national headline misses.

Ontario sits at 7.6 percent — the
highest unemployment rate in the
country right now. The number of
Ontarians actively searching for
work increased by 28,000 in February
alone — people who were employed
last month and are not today.

Quebec lost 57,000 jobs in February
— the first significant employment
decrease in the province in over
four years. Montreal's unemployment
rate jumped 0.7 percentage points
to 5.9 percent in one month.

British Columbia shed 20,000 positions.
Construction, finance, insurance,
and real estate led the losses on
the West Coast — the sectors most
directly connected to housing demand.

Then there is Alberta.

Alberta's unemployment rate fell
to 6.3 percent in February — down
0.1 percentage points — while every
other major province was rising.
Alberta added 20,000 jobs in January
and held steady in February while
Quebec was losing 57,000.

Same country. Completely different
employment trajectory.

Now connect that to what you know
from Issues 1 and 2.

The cities where jobs are disappearing
fastest are the exact same cities
where owning costs the most. Toronto
is carrying both burdens simultaneously
right now — the largest housing gap
in Canada and the highest unemployment
rate in the country.

The cities where jobs are growing
or holding steady are the same cities
where the rent vs buy math already
made the most sense. Edmonton and
Calgary were already showing near
neutral monthly gaps. Now add falling
unemployment and rising prices to
that picture.

The data keeps pointing to the
same place it has pointed for
three issues in a row.

900,000 Canadian mortgages renew
in 2025 and 2026.

Many are coming off pandemic era
rates below 2 percent.

They are renewing into a world
where rates sit at 3.69 to 4.5 percent
and their employment is less certain
than it was when they signed.

That combination — payment shock
plus job uncertainty — is the
forced seller story nobody is
fully pricing in yet.

Three things the jobs data tells us
about Canadian housing right now.

The double burden is real. The cities
most exposed to job losses are the
same cities where owning costs the
most. Toronto is carrying both
burdens simultaneously — 7.6 percent
unemployment and a $1,200 to $1,300
monthly ownership gap. That combination
puts serious pressure on both buyers
and existing homeowners heading into
spring.

Alberta keeps winning. Edmonton and
Calgary are not just the most affordable
major markets in Canada — they are
becoming more stable while Ontario
and Quebec weaken. Falling unemployment
plus rising prices plus manageable
housing gaps. The long term case for
buying in Alberta strengthens with
every data release.

The forced seller wave is coming.
900,000 Canadians renewing mortgages
off sub 2 percent rates in 2025 and
2026 — concentrated in Ontario and BC
where employment is softest. Payment
shock plus job uncertainty equals
motivated sellers. That inventory
hitting the market puts further
downward pressure on prices in the
markets that can least afford it.

→ If you are employed in Ontario
and considering buying: the combination
of high unemployment and large housing
gap makes this the worst time to
stretch financially. Job security
matters more than interest rates
right now. Do not buy at the edge
of what you can afford in a market
where 7.6 percent of workers are
already unemployed.

→ If you are a renter in Toronto
or Vancouver watching prices fall:
the job data suggests prices have
further to fall. Forced sellers
coming off pandemic mortgages plus
weakening employment equals more
inventory at lower prices. Patience
has a data backed case right now.

→ If you are in Alberta and stable
in your job: three issues of data
now point to the same conclusion.
Low housing gap. Rising prices.
Falling unemployment. If you are
planning to stay 5 plus years the
window to buy in Edmonton or Calgary
may be narrowing as more Canadians
notice what the data has been showing.

→ If you are a newcomer choosing
which province to settle in: the
employment data now adds another
dimension to the housing decision.
Alberta offers both housing
affordability and employment
stability simultaneously. That
combination is rare in Canada
right now.

→ If you are approaching mortgage
renewal in 2025 or 2026: model
your payments at current rates
before your renewal date arrives.
The combination of higher rates
and potentially reduced income
deserves a stress test of your own
before the bank runs theirs.

Prime Minister Carney described it
as "big adjustments" caused by US
trade uncertainty. Economists at
CIBC called it "very worrisome."
TD Bank described it as
"decidedly weak."

They are all describing the same number.
Pick your adjective.

What matters more than the adjective
is the geography. Ontario is absorbing
most of the pain. Alberta is not.

That divergence has been building
quietly for 18 months. The jobs
data just made it impossible to ignore.

Three issues in. The data keeps
telling the same story from different
angles.

See you next Tuesday. 🍁

Two datasets powered this week's analysis.
Both free. Both public. Pull them yourself.

Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
February 2026 — Released March 13 2026
The definitive source for Canadian
employment data by province and sector.

→ www150.statcan.gc.ca

CREA MLS Statistics — February 2026
Home prices by city for housing
connection analysis.

→ stats.crea.ca

🔢 METHODOLOGY

This week’s analysis connects employment shocks
to housing outcomes. Job loss and unemployment
data come from the February 2026 Labour Force
Survey by Statistics Canada, while home
price data is sourced from MLS reports via
the Canadian Real Estate Association.
Rental benchmarks come from Rentals.ca (March 2026).

We combine these into a model that
tracks how changes in employment affect buying
power, selling pressure, and the rent-versus-own gap
across major markets. The link between unemployment
and home prices is based on long-term historical trends
across multiple cycles—used here as a directional guide, not a prediction.

All figures in CAD.
Questions? Reply to this email.

⚖️ DISCLAIMER

The Maple Metric publishes data analysis
for informational and educational purposes
only. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes
financial, mortgage, or real estate advice.

All data sourced from Statistics Canada,
CREA, and TREB — publicly available datasets.

Always consult a licensed financial advisor
before making housing or employment related
financial decisions.

This newsletter is independently operated
and not affiliated with any financial institution.

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You are reading The Maple Metric —
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Published every Tuesday | Issue 3 | March 2026
Written and analyzed by Ish Sharma
Ontario, Canada

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