Good morning from Hamilton. 🍁

Prices are the lowest they've been since March 2021.

The Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate from 5% to 2.25%. Mortgage costs are down. Inventory is up. By every textbook definition, this should be the moment buyers flood back in.

And yet — almost nobody is buying.

This issue is about why. Not the economic explanation. The psychological one.

Let's get into it.

30%

The share of Canadians who believe home prices will be higher 12 months from now.

In April 2021 — when the market was at its peak — that number was 68%.

That collapse in confidence is not a footnote. It is the housing market right now. When most people expect prices to fall, most people wait. And when most people wait, prices fall. Sentiment doesn't just reflect the market. It is the market.

Source: Mortgage Sandbox — Metro Toronto Housing Market Report, April 2026

The national benchmark home price fell for the 16th consecutive month in March 2026 — landing at C$659,100.

That is down 20% from the peak in early 2022. A full bear market, by any standard definition. Most Canadians have not seen that number written plainly.

Source: Bloomberg — Canadian Home Prices Fall 16th Straight Month, April 16 2026